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NFL draft: Who has Dak Prescott QB potential?
This year’s rookie crop of NFL passers has turned things a bit upside down. The No. 2 pick from the FCS school, Carson Wentz, is outplaying the No. 1 pick, Jared Goff, from the Pac-12 school.
Dallas Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott, a fourth-round pick, has been an absolute hit. If we knew then what we know now, he might have been a first-round pick. (Although we could have told you that back in March had you asked.)
Other rookie fill-ins such as Jacoby Brissett and Cody Kessler — both late third-rounders — have shown poise and maturity while Christian Hackenberg, a mid-second rounder, looked miserable in the preseason and remains buried on the New York Jets’ roster.
Will any of this have an effect on the 2017 draft? Perhaps. Teams are always going to try to find value at every position, but landing a potential starter outside the top 10 picks is tricky business. When it happens, it feels like winning big on a scratch-off ticket — unexpected and wonderful.
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Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson and Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer roundly are touted as the top two draft-eligible prospects at the position for next year’s draft, although that’s hardly set in stone. Of course, similar things were said about Goff a year ago, and Wentz hadn’t yet emerged as a top pick. But are Watson or Kizer worth top-five picks? Conversely, might there be better value down in the draft, as this year’s rookie class has shown there sometimes can be?
It isn’t a banner quarterback class right now — and there doesn’t appear to be a Wentz or Prescott in this crop. But there still are some interesting prospects who could work themselves into a highly drafted position, plus some others who have fallen off. Here are some of the more notable draft-eligible quarterbacks who might be available in April.
Brad Kaaya, Miami: Although Kaaya was not perfect against a Florida State defense that had allowed at least 34 points to every FBS team it had played this season, he delivered some NFL-quality throws, including a pair of end-zone fades for touchdowns. Kaaya also showed great toughness, taking a beating, playing through a sore shoulder and having a tooth knocked out (a molar, no less!). A lineman handed Kaaya his tooth, he ran it over to the sideline and kept playing.
Though the Canes came up short on a blocked extra point Kaaya stepped up when he had to.
Kaaya has had a nice season and is positioning himself as the latest Mark Richt-coached quarterback to be warmly regarded in NFL circles. Is Kaaya a first-round pick as things stand now? Yes, even if he’s not an incredible physical specimen with a great arm. The intangibles are very strong, and he could end up a top-15 pick.
Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina: One of the surprise risers at the position this season, Trubisky had a few nice moments in 2015 while filling in for Marquise Williams, who was in training camp with the Green Bay Packers before being cut. It has become obvious in short order that Trubisky is by far the better NFL prospect — and even a possible first-round pick.
It’s easy to look at his awful performance last week against Virginia Tech — Trubisky was 13-of-33 passing for 58 yards, no touchdowns and his first two interceptions of the season — plus a subpar game in the opener against Georgia and raise a doubting eyebrow. But his good size, athletic traits, a plus arm and NFL-caliber mechanics will endear himself to scouts, as long as he bounces back from last week.
Trubisky could be somewhat of a polarizing prospect, depending on the evaluator, but there will be heavy interest come springtime.
Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: We wrote up Kelly last week, so we won’t go into great detail on his on-field talents, which are intriguing to say the least. His biggest bugaboo might be the off-field questions that have been raised in the past and ones that appear to be lingering. He was involved in a fight while watching his brother play in a Buffalo-area high school game, and though the Rebels have not issued any discipline for Kelly, who has had his share of incidents even before he arrived in Oxford, NFL scouts are keeping a file that seems to keep growing. His character and lack of size will be concerns among league talent evaluators, even though his talent and pedigree (he’s Jim Kelly’s nephew) will earn him long looks.
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: Mahomes is often labeled a system quarterback because the Red Raiders’ offense is QB-friendly. But watch closely and you see a player with some real skill in and out of the pocket. He can dissect defenses readily. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s comparison of Mahomes to Aaron Rodgers was a bit specious, but you can see how he might pattern his game after the Green Bay Packers passer.
The biggest worry for Mahomes lately has been a shoulder injury he suffered after a monster hit against Kansas, but given the choice to play or sit last weekend he gutted it out against Kansas State and — ho hum — completed 45 of 62 passes for 504 yards, two TDs and a pick in the 44-38 loss to Kansas State. Attempting that many throws and taking as many big hits as he did spoke volumes for his toughness.
To this point of the season, Mahomes is Pro Football Focus’ top-rated college quarterback — ahead of Heisman candidates such as Lamar Jackson and Greg Ward Jr., plus Baylor’s Seth Russell and Kelly. There’s a pro prospect in Mahomes for sure, and it will be interesting to see if the junior makes this his final season in college or returns to Lubbock for another year.
Luke Falk, Washington State: Another quarterback who is asked to throw the ball a zillion times and is putting up boffo numbers is Falk, but again it’s unfair to label him a drone who merely takes advantage of volume opportunities. There is pro potential in Falk, who nonetheless will be hotly debated in NFL circles.
On the one hand, his size, touch and quick release check all the NFL boxes; on the other, there is the stigma of Mike Leach’s offense and Falk’s occasional carelessness in traffic. This could be the type of case where Falk is drafted in that Hackenberg-Brock Osweiler-Jimmy Garoppolo range of the mid-to-late second round, and those are three quarterbacks who had a wide range of grades from NFL scouts when they were coming out. Falk could be in the same boat, but it takes only one team to fall in love with a player.
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: The junior possesses a pro-caliber build at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds and steadily has risen in the eyes of NFL evaluators who have watched him throw multiple TD passes in five of six games this season and only two picks in 231 attempts. He can throw with touch or fire the ball in when needed, but he might not have a cannon for an arm overall.
Still, there’s a lot to like about Rudolph, who has earned a reputation as a late-game hero with his six comeback victories in 2015 and his strong performances in late wins over Pitt and Iowa State. He’s another quarterback who is not certain to come out, as he could get washed out in what looks like a potentially deep crop of quarterbacks, but don’t rule out a fast-rising stock if he declares. The tools are there despite him starting only 21 games in college.
Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee: We expect little consensus on Dobbs in NFL circles. On the one hand, he has had special moments in college and has delivered some big performances this season, especially in the Vols’ weekly thrilling comebacks. They put the ball in his hands, and he usually delivers when they need it most. On top of that, he’s exceptionally smart — an aerospace engineering major — who has represented his school very well.
But Dobbs has a visible ceiling as a passer, and his strong athleticism might not be the kind of thing that translates well enough as an NFL quarterback. He takes a lot of sacks and doesn’t project to be the kind of run-around, playmaking quarterback that, say, Russell Wilson has become.
We don’t know what to make of Dobbs as a draft prospect outside of this: he possesses strong leadership traits, elite intelligence and very good athletic traits. He’s going to be a fascinating evaluation, and though it’s a bit apples to oranges in terms of skills, a team could view Dobbs in the way the New England Patriots viewed Brissett at the end of Round 3.
Cooper Rush, Central Michigan: Wentz’s name has been invoked when talking about Rush (yes, we were admittedly guilty of that), even though it’s not a parallel comparison by most means. But Rush has good experience, an NFL body and a decent arm. His Hail Mary TD pass against Oklahoma State helped put him on the national map, but MAC folks have been watching his strong skills for years.
Is there anything elite about Rush? No. Still, Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck made a very strong endorsement of Rush last month with a bold prediction attached.
“I think he’ll be an incredibly high draft pick,” Fleck said, via the Detroit News. “I got a chance to watch him over the course of the last three years and he makes everybody around him better. He’s an incredible leader. He gets everybody in the right spot. You can see that everybody leans on him and that’s the definition of a true leader. Everybody looks to him to be his best all the time and he has been.
“He’s incredibly consistent. He’s very accurate, has a big arm. He’s very, very smart and makes elite decisions and you can tell his leadership runs true through the entire football team.”
Wentz-esque? Let’s back away from that comp now, although it’s clear what the effect of having a very good wide receiver (Corey Davis) but a bad offensive line (13 sacks the past two games) has done for Rush.
J.T. Barrett, Ohio State: The whispers that the redshirt junior Barrett could declare early are starting to float out there, even if he’s not viewed as a classic pro prospect. Yes, he’s a poised, clutch, gifted athlete and has earned a lot of praise from the Buckeyes staff for how he handled a very crowded and slightly awkward quarterbacks room last season. And he’s carried on successfully this season, too, and will have some very good defenses (Wisconsin this week, Michigan later) against which to display his skills for NFL scouts. Don’t discount that.
There’s a lot to like about Barrett, who might go higher than you think. We’re hedging a bit and keeping him among the mid-third round prospects for now, but that could change quickly. Like Dobbs, Barrett possesses excellent poise and leadership characteristics and after watching Prescott adjust so quickly and look so comfortable in his starting role, those might be the kind of traits scouts weigh more heavily.
The comp we heard this summer and like the most: Tyrod Taylor. Both are undersized by NFL standards and yet gifted athletically with good downfield touch and ball placement. Taylor needed to sit and learn for years before he got his shot, and we think Barrett could be on the same track.
Davis Webb, Cal: This is a player we’d like to watch more closely because the Texas Tech transfer is doing some nice things in his first season at Berkeley. His strong games against Texas and a very good Utah defense can’t go overlooked, and a so-so performance the following game in a loss to Oregon State can be explained by a hand injury he suffered in the first half. Playing the entire game with the injury will earn him toughness points in NFL circles.
Webb has nice height, a tireless arm and football intelligence. It’s worth noting that Jared Goff’s struggle to immediately adapt to an NFL system with the Los Angeles Rams could be the kind of thing, fairly or not, held against Davis when the scouts bear down on his tape.
Seth Russell, Baylor: There’s a lot to be said for how Russell has handled all the turmoil in Waco and come back following a serious neck injury that ended his 2015 season early. He was cleared for action three months after surgery and has done some respectable things this season, rating as PFF’s No. 4-graded QB this season so far, even if his inconsistency is notable.
The redshirt senior turns 23 in January and will be examined closely by NFL doctors, even if he hasn’t shown any physical limitations this season. In fact, he might be as good an athlete as former Baylor QB Bryce Petty and could figure into that same draft range (but most likely lower if we had to guess).
But like, Petty Russell will have to answer questions about his ability to produce outside of the Bears’ offensive scheme and could need years of development in a more pro-style system.
C.J Beathard, Iowa: The physical abilities are there, but the results are not. There are stretches where Beathard looks like an NFL thrower, but it’s rarely on display over the course of 60 minutes. He has been disappointed in our cursory evaluation of him, and he figures to be a developmental project who needs work— but he will get drafted and get a shot to marinate as a No. 3 in the NFL.
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: See above with Beathard. It’s easy to look at Leidner and see things NFL teams are seeking. But his Iowa tape will send viewers for an antacid. It was an ugly display, and to think that ESPN had hyped Leidner as — take your pick — the next Wentz or a possible first-rounder looks wild in retrospect. Leidner will be a late-round flier, we think, and a prospect in need of some work. A recent concussion has been the latest blow in a disappointing senior season.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at edholm@yahoo-inc.com or follow him on Twitter!
